Why and how the text could be Bavarian

[oshfdk]

Once I’ve reached the point where I have a deeper understanding of the cipher—and that’s a lengthy process with many setbacks—I’ll build a generator. That could take days, weeks, months—who knows....

There is no hurry, it's been 600 years. Would be great if it ends up in decipherment, and I never said this is impossible, I'm just skeptical about the evidence presented so far.

But even now, in its unfinished version, the VBM already shows a clear superiority over many other theories (actually, I don’t know of any that can achieve all this with so few resources)—which simply suggests that this might be the right path and probably will be.

In your eyes, yes. I can't help but point again the similarity to how in the Chinese thread the Chinese origin is presented as an established/proven fact. I think this is some psychological phenomenon where a theory aligns particularly well with the beliefs or cognition of the person who created it, which is expected, and then it looks much stronger to its creator than to other people. I think it's similar to survivor bias, probably every person has some mental/cognitive/worldview blind spots and when working on hypotheses if the faults in a hypothesis overlap with these blind spots, the theory appears impeccable to this particular mind, while looking weak to other people. 

Of course, the reverse is also possible and has happened many times in science - when the general public were the ones with the blind spots, while the author of a very unorthodox theory turned out to be right. So it's possible that one of the theories that are discussed now on the forum is the right one (let's be frank, I'd say only remotely possible). But it's impossible for all of them to be right at the same time, that's for sure.