In your opinion, did the writing of the VM start closer to 1412 or closer to 1440?

[Koen G]

In your opinion, did the writing of the VM start closer to 1412 or closer to 1440?

This relates to something I was pondering earlier today, but I'd like to see the poll results first. The poll is anonymous, but you can always comment if you like. If you have no idea, then pick what feels best to you. This is not intended to find any solutions, just to see how opinions are divided.

[Mark Knowles]

Given that I already have a theory where I think the Voynich was most likely written in the 1430s I have to select "Closer to 1440".

[pjburkshire]

I have no idea. I work with the assumption that the carbon-dating of 1404–1438 is probably correct or close to being correct. I work with the assumption that the parchment was used within a few years of the animal being slaughtered. That would take the writing to 1404 - 1440. I have no way of making any kind of reasonable estimate closer than that. I could toss a coin but I see no value in doing that.

[bi3mw]

I have no idea either. I would be interested to know if there are any clues that point in one direction or the other.

[MarcoP]

That would take the writing to 1404 - 1440.

In that case, one can see that 1412 is comfortably inside the range, while 1440 is the high borderline.

[Koen G]

I made this poll because I had a feeling that among people who are set on a certain date, most of those seem to "require" a later date. But as far as I know, nobody requires an earlier date. 

The most commonly cited date range for the parchment, based on the radiocarbon dating, is 1404–1438. Additionally, a narrower range of 1411-1430 can be expected with 68.2% probability. If we assume that parchment was usually used right away, we don't have to place too much time between when the parchment was produced and when any writing was started on it. Taking all that into account, a date of 1412 (start of narrow range +1 year for getting production going) is more likely than a date of 1440 (end of broad range +2 years).

The only reason for people to vote outside of the broad range instead of inside of the narrow range is if they have something like a theory about authorship - which is fine. But it is remarkable that these tend to need later dates rather than earlier.

[R. Sale]

The archaic inference <whoever that was> regarding the Golden Fleece sets the starting date at 1430.

[Mark Knowles]

The only reason for people to vote outside of the broad range instead of inside of the narrow range is if they have something like a theory about authorship - which is fine. But it is remarkable that these tend to need later dates rather than earlier.

I suspect that this is coincidence more than anything else.

[Anton]

I have no solid foundations to choose between the two options but I voted for the first one, just because I once developed You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.. It's indecisive of course.

I work with the assumption that the carbon-dating of 1404–1438 is probably correct or close to being correct.

Rather than "probably correct", it's correct but probabilistic

Here's Rene's summary on the matter: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.

But it's important to recognize that the widely cited range (of 1404 - 1438 with 95% probability) derives from the "combined" dating of four different sampled folios. However it's not at all certain that all folios were prepared at one and the same moment in time. On the contrary, it's quite possible that the VMS creation spanned many years, especially given that originally it was probably unbound. If one considers sampled folios separately, then folio 68 suggests somewhat earlier creation date as compared to the three botanical folios. Other (unsampled) folios may yield yet different results.

[Mark Knowles]

The only reason for people to vote outside of the broad range instead of inside of the narrow range is if they have something like a theory about authorship - which is fine. But it is remarkable that these tend to need later dates rather than earlier.

I suspect that this is coincidence more than anything else.

My dating of the Rosettes Folio to the 1430s is due to the Council of Basel being called by Pope Martin V in 1430.

Gérard Cheshire, for example, dates the manuscript to around 1444 as that was when a volcanic eruption occurred near the island of Ischia.

For those who think Hartlieb wrote the Voynich the dating is later due to the period he was active.

These three later datings are quite independent and so it is coincidental that they happen to be later.