The Book Switch Theory

[Jorge_Stolfi]

It doesn't matter whether you knew about N18 or not. What's important is that the numbering has the same characteristics as the others.

But it doesn't.  Numbers #7 and #8 are very different from #4 and #19.

But if he knew about it, he should have expected that there would also be another N19. A counterfeiter would never have done this based on a mere assumption, as he has no knowledge of what else might be in the archives.It's not a banknote where the same serial number doesn't stand out.

As I wrote, maybe he had some reason to believe that #19 would never be found.

But I think that he just gambled.  Like forgers and con artists do all the time.  Because they trust that, if someone finds evidence of the fraud, they will be able to talk their way out of trouble.  It is one of the basic and necessary skills of the "trade".

Victor Lustig was a 19th century con man who, among other exploits, sold the Eiffel tower to a scrap metal dealer, by pretending to be a representative of the city's department which had decided to demolish it.  Check what he did when the dealer became suspicious and confronted him.

"So you say your experts found that in the library of the Zapadákov Monastery there is another book with Jacobus's ex-libris, numbered 19 too?  How strange.  Could it be that, when he acquired #20,  Jacobus forgot that he already had #19?   Or maybe he gave #19 away at some point, and reused the number for his next acquisition.  Or maybe he erased the name and reused the number because he thought he could get in trouble if someone found that he had taken possession one of Rudolf's most precious books.  Or perhaps ... I don't want to offend anyone, but could that ex-libris out there be a forgery by some unscrupulous book dealer?"

All the best, --stolfi