The Book Switch Theory

[proto57]

The diagram is specific in saying that the the animal skin parchment is what was dated.

Indeed, sorry.  But there is still the "Scottsh Cow" problem: IIUC, only one bifolio was dated.  It is possible that some other bifolio would have been dated 1550...

And that was just one unpublished measurement by one person. (The other two authors were not involved in the C14 dating.)

Hi Jorge: Actually, four samples from four bifolios (bifolia?) were radiocarbon dated by Greg Hodgins of the University of Arizona, not only one. Which ones, and the results found, were not published until... by the most rare and fortiutous chance... I had my camera turned on and ready during Greg's lecture at the Voynich 100 Conference in Frascati, Italy, in 2012, and quickly snapped this picture [EDIT TO ADD: In fact, the little red line you see at the title of the right-most column is from my laser pointer/slide changer, which I had brought for my presentation, but loaned to the event for everyone's use]:

   

Until then, we only had the graph which processed the above numbers into "1404 to 1438". The results actually show an extreme range of something like 60 to 120 years or more, as I outlined in one of my blog posts:

Folio 8: 490±37, which works out to 1423 to 1497
Folio 26: 514±35, which works out to 1401 to 1471
Folio 47: 506±35, which works out to 1409 to 1479
Folio 68 (cleaned): 550±35, which works out to 1365 to 1435

So basically I agree with you, but I only wanted to point out FYI that there were four samples, not one, and you were actually close... since one could extend to 1497 being only 53 years from your top end speculative example of 1550.

Point being, your intuition was spot on. The dates DO vary. This is also, actually, a point in my talk in the upcoming March 11th Voynich Zoom 2026, in fact.

To be clear, I still think that the Standard Provenance theory is the most likely, at least as far back as Barschius and Marci.  I still give the Book Switch theory maybe 15% of probability -- and only because the theory is my child.

Well I must point out that, while you may have arrived independently at the "Book Switch" idea... which, by the way, I find plausible (NTIM)... it was actually Andrew Steckley (asteckley here, of course) who first proposed it, some months or more earlier. He discussed it on Ninjas some time ago.

But I hope that does not affect your 15% assessment of the idea!

But I think it is very unlikely that Rudolf ever owned the book.  To me, Raphael's claim was based entirely on hearsay about the "600 ducats book", and so it is just the first crazy Origin theory about the VMS that we know about.  (By the way, that is another quibble with your diagram: even yellow is too much credit for the claim that "the VMS was purchased by Rudolf")

Further to your point... which I also agree with... it goes beyond the nature of the "600 ducats" being "heresay" (which, of course, it is), in that that letter never actually states that 600 ducats was for the purchase of the book, but rather, that the "bearer" of the book was given 600 ducats. For all we know, the book was valued at 20 ducats, or one, or a hundred. The person who brought said book may have been paid for various other reasons, other activities and services of value to the Court, which was patronizing that person for a range of reasons, including the book.

In fact, the way I interpret the various translations of the Letter, I think it even possible that "the bearer" never actually sold the book at all... they just were "bearing" it, and later left it there, gifted it, or whatever.

All the best, Rich