The Modern Forgery Hypothesis

[Jorge_Stolfi]

Not sure how you got these numbers

A probability is just a numerical way to express one's degree of confidence in some claims.  One cannot measure probabilities, or obtain them in any objective way.  They are inherently subjective; so ideally one should always say "my probability" rather than "the probability" -- because the latter does not exist.

Probability theory teaches only how to keep your probabilities consistent with each other, but leaves open the choice of basic values from which others are derived.  For example, if my probability of tomorrow's lottery number ending in 4 or 8 is 40% each, then probability theory says that my probability of the last digit being less than 7 should be no less than 40% and no more than 60%.  Setting it at 30% would be irrational, because it would be logically inconsistent with my other stated probabilities.

The numbers in that post express my confidence on the various owners, and are based on the facts I know and on how I think the world works.  Including my assessment of the character of  Wilfrd and the other persons involved.

All the best, --stolfi