The Modern Forgery Hypothesis

[RobGea]

Is it possible Wilfrid Voynich et al created the VMS circa 1910 , well sure it is but you need a few assumptions.
Now each of these assumptions can be explained individually and can be assigned a probability, then multiply the probabilities.

1. Could Wilf get his hands on 242 pages , 60+bifolios of medieval parchment ?
  + some bigger bits for the foldouts

  --Probably, he was a dealer in ancient MSS, he knew of and visited places that would have old stuff
  --He would need a lot of it
  -- 52% No  48% Yes

2. Could Wilf have known some peepz with the relevant practical skills to create the VMS ?
    --Probably
    --20% No  80% Yes

3. Did Wilf have the necessary practical skills to create the VMS ?
  --Wilf was qualified in Chemistry, so making the ink should not have been a problem for him
  --The paint would be harder to make than Iron gall ink but Wilf could do it
  --Book binding requires specialist tools and specialist skills,
      Wilf would be familiar with the process, but any evidence, like the tools and such
  --33% No  66% Yes

4. Did Wilf have any knowledge about ancient books, MSS's ?
  --Yep he sure did
  --O% No  100% Yes

5. What was Wilfs motive in creating the VMS ?
    --Money?, Ego? Funding for his Russian buddies?
    --Unknown
   
6. How did Wilf create the script ?
    --Wilf was apparently proficient in several languages ( so thats a plus point ) 
    --Unknown

Result:
0.48 * 0.8 * 0.66 * 1 = 0.25344  Oops ive produced a 1 in 4 chance its a modern forgery (   not my intention at all )
Anyway there are probably many more hoops an MFH theorist would have to jump through.

Conclusion:
the Modern Forgery Hypothesis(MFH) aka Wilfriddidit is not proven, it is not disproven, it is a sound and logical theory.
The many arguments against it, blank 15thC parchment, the bindings, bookworm holes, marginalia, etc can all be individually explained.
However these arguments, these hoops that the MFH theorist has to jump through, each one reduces the probability of the reality of the MFH.
Every new argument makes this theory less and less likely.
And of course as a theory it is prosaic and boring.

The Voynich manuscript as an authentic 15th century book,
its mysterious, its romantic, its author unknown, its story could involve
Renaissance celebs, Historical players, Kings, Alchemy, the Occult, Cryptographers.

In short:
An authentic old VMS is a portal to a different world whereas MFH is just boring and on the balance of probability, Unlikely.