Jorge_Stolfi > 01-07-2026, 08:50 PM
(30-06-2026, 03:46 PM)Vuk88 Wrote: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.I specifically focused on one of the most famous statistical anomalies: the "double repetitions" (like chol chol). ... These double words aren't isolated or random; they are strictly bound to specific associated words.
asteckley > 01-07-2026, 10:47 PM
(01-07-2026, 08:50 PM)Jorge_Stolfi Wrote: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.... However, the precise coincidences, the absence of spikes elsewhere, and the uniform size of the spikes make me suspect that they are artifacts of the way the data is provided or processed. Are you sure that this is not the case?
Vuk88 > 02-07-2026, 02:56 AM
(01-07-2026, 03:17 PM)asteckley Wrote: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.(I apologize that I have not fully digested other people's comments and your replies. From what I read there, it seemed clearer if I responded directly to your initial post and your zenodo paper only.)Hi Andrew,
What you have done is very interesting and possibly valuable work, but I am unclear on several aspects of it.
Quote:First, if I understand correctly, your first chart shows the words with the highest correlation — that is, the unique words (aka word types) most likely to occur as doublet sequences — and the words with the lowest correlation — that is, the words least likely to occur that way. [...]To begin with, as you correctly pointed out, the logistic regression produces a continuous probability spectrum (ranging from a high probability of generating doublets to a high probability of inhibition). The bar chart deliberately clips the middle range to highlight the extremes, namely the highest positive and negative coefficients. Actually, the goal of this chart wasn't to prove "clustering" per se, but rather to show that the doublet phenomenon is not uniformly distributed across the vocabulary. Specific words act as heavy "syntactic wrappers" (red), while others act as strong "inhibitors" (blue).
If so, then the complete bar graph would presumably show a continuous trend of words, with correlations decreasing gradually from 0.933 for “sy” down to 0.665 for “chees.” In other words, your chart has clipped out the long middle range of a continuous trend related to how often unique words occur in doublet form -- no indication of clustering per se.
Quote:The coloring of red and blue in that cluster plot is presumably assigned simply by the sign of the z-direction value. [...]Regarding how the clusters were defined and what the colors represent, I can confirm that the red and blue colors aren't the result of a clustering algorithm applied to the t-SNE coordinates. They are predefined labels imported directly from the logistic regression (Red = Main Trigger Words; Blue = Main Inhibitors). The t-SNE algorithm was used exclusively to reduce a high-dimensional contextual vector space (Word2Vec/TF-IDF) into a 3D space. The fact that the pre-labeled Red and Blue words naturally separate into distinct regions in the t-SNE space demonstrates that the words triggering doublets and those inhibiting them do not share the same contextual environments. They belong to different syntactic and semantic classes.
So is this chart not just showing the positive vs negative sign of an unidentifiable metric in the low-dimension reduction from the t-SNE algorithm?
Or did you instead use a seperate clustering algorithm on the points in the t-SNE output space in order to define two clusters?
Quote:With the Monte Carlo simulations and the violin plot, again, if I understand your description correctly, the predictive accuracy concerns whether one can predict whether a given word belongs to one cluster rather than another. Is that correct?As for the tests conducted, I can tell you that in each of the 1,000 permutations, the order of the words in the manuscript was completely randomized. However, I strictly preserved the exact global vocabulary, the frequencies of every single word, and the word lengths, while also standardizing the page lengths. I then ran the exact same predictive pipeline (Logistic Regression -> Accuracy Score) on the shuffled text just to see if the model could still predict the appearance of doublets based on the surrounding vocabulary. The predictive accuracy collapsed to about 50%, so pure randomness.
[...]
But again, I am not clear how you conclude that this structure has anything to do specifically with word doublets, as opposed to other structuring effects, (such as the self-citation patterns described by Timm or the differing vocabularies found in Currier languages A and B).
Quote:As I understand it, you have plotted the density of word doublets per folio page and compared that to the thematic assignments that have been observed through folio sequence of the manuscript. And you have found that five particular folios stand out by having four to five times as many word doublets as all the other folios. Those five pages each happen to either be the terminal page of a thematic section, or (at least in the last of the five cases) to precede a section of missing folios. Is that correct?Finally, you noticed that the last analysis (the massive spike of doublets on terminal folios, like f108) seems a bit disconnected from the previous machine-learning charts. You are absolutely right, it is indeed a structural observation of the manuscript as a whole. However, it perfectly closes the circle of this research.
[...]
(By the way, the work about to be published by Colin Layfield and Lisa Fagin-Davis might be worth reviewing when it becomes available soon, to see if it affects the folio sequence positioning part of your finding.)
Vuk88 > 02-07-2026, 03:51 AM
(01-07-2026, 05:33 PM)Mauro Wrote: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.(30-06-2026, 10:58 PM)Vuk88 Wrote: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.The Logistic Regression doesn't use an n-gram model, it uses a Bag-of-Words approach at the page level. So it's not looking at physical adjacency, but rather page-level co-occurrence. It found that words like shedy and chees heavily turn on or off on the exact same pages where the doubles appear.Thanks, it's clearer now.
(30-06-2026, 10:58 PM)Vuk88 Wrote: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.On the sample size issue with the 36 chees vs 298 doubles, I had the exact same concern about statistical chance. That's precisely why I ran a Monte Carlo Permutation Test with 1000 iterations. The empirical p-value came out to p=0.0010, and the mathematical distance between the permuted random distribution and the true manuscript data is what confirms this isn't just a random fluke.
Question: did the MonteCarlo permutation reshuffle all the words, or did it keep the original doublets and reshuffled the rest? And, did it keep the page structure of the original (the number of words on each page)? I think I would be convinced your findings are not a statistical fluke with a permutation test which:
- keeps the same doublets as the original in the same positions (that is to say, on the same page as the original, given your algorithm works page by page)
- keeps the same page structure (number of words on each page) as the original
- avoids creating new doublets when reshuffling words
- and finally reshuffles words section by section (Balneo, Herbal A, Herbal B..). I say this because there are big differences in vocabulary between the sections and mixing everything together will tend by itself to dilute any statistical signal.
In any case, nice work
asteckley > 02-07-2026, 06:39 AM
(02-07-2026, 02:56 AM)Vuk88 Wrote: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.As for the tests conducted, I can tell you that in each of the 1,000 permutations, the order of the words in the manuscript was completely randomized. However, I strictly preserved the exact global vocabulary, the frequencies of every single word, and the word lengths, while also standardizing the page lengths. I then ran the exact same predictive pipeline (Logistic Regression -> Accuracy Score) on the shuffled text just to see if the model could still predict the appearance of doublets based on the surrounding vocabulary. The predictive accuracy collapsed to about 50%, so pure randomness.Can you clarify this further?
asteckley > 02-07-2026, 07:24 AM
(02-07-2026, 03:51 AM)Vuk88 Wrote: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.I simply assigned a mathematical label ('1' or '0') to the text blocks depending on whether they actually contained a doublet or not.
During the 1,000 permutations, the algorithm randomly shuffled only these mathematical labels, forcing the model to look for a syntactic rule on fake targets while the underlying text remained perfectly intact.
Mauro > 02-07-2026, 08:46 AM
dashstofsk > 02-07-2026, 01:12 PM
Vuk88 > 02-07-2026, 03:17 PM
(02-07-2026, 01:12 PM)dashstofsk Wrote: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.I too have difficulty understanding your claim.
But also when you are doing an analysis on repeat words then it would help to enumerate the repeats. I have done this for you, for quires 13 and 20. See attached.
In particular you will see:
- In quire 13 the frequency of word pairs that are repeats is 1.1%. For quire 20 it is 0.6%. Roughly a halving.
- In quire 13 ol is the top word ( 299, 4.2% of words ). The number of ol ol repeats is 12 and this is nearly the same as the expected number if words were distributed randomly ( 299 x 4.2% = 13 ). qokedy repeats 11 times, 4 would be expected. qokeedy, observed 9, expected 3.
- In quire 20 aiin is the top word ( 322, 2.73% ) but it does not repeat. 9 would be expected. qokeedy, observed 11, expected 1. qokeey, observed 9, expected 2. ar, observed 8, expected 4.
We do know that there is a difference in the words and language of the sections of the manuscript and that this will probably affect the frequency of repeats. In particular quire 13 has a smaller corpus of words [ see You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view. ]. Moreover, the number of repeats over and above what could be expected is so low that I doubt that any analysis will lead to any definite conclusion.
Vuk88 > 02-07-2026, 05:33 PM
(02-07-2026, 08:46 AM)Mauro Wrote: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.You used a clever method, but I rather agree with asteckley here (You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.).
I'd feel much more comfortable with a reshuffling test done along the lines of my You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.. If after the reshufflings the plots come out significantly different from the original, then that would be something.