Speculative fraud hypothesis
#1
Preface: don't take this too seriously.

During discussion with friends, I imagined a hypothetical explanation for the creation of the manuscript. My chief problem with most hoax theories is that the amount of effort required makes the proposition that it was made as a hoax to fool someone gullible out of money stupid: a fraudulent actor simply finds someone more gullible to con, not spend a year's worth of scribing effort to create a fraudulent artifact. Such forgeries do happen, but when the amount of money thus received is tremendous - like an art forgery. The manuscript, to my mind, doesn't fit this criteria.

However, that is not the only way a con artist could use a manuscript like this. In fact, a travelling snake oil salesman could use such an artifact to bolster their credibility among marks, as a prop. After creation of such a prop, it could be reused, making for a much better return on investment. A con artist group could reuse the same artifact, making it a reasonable proposition for the five scribes to collaborate. And, the prop would also serve its purpose during creation: one could simply show off a single folio or quire and, noticing an uptick in marks catching the bait, spend more effort to create further and further pages, culminating in a book.

The advantages of this speculative hypothesis:
  • Explains the amount of effort for a hoax
  • Allows for collaboration with common purpose by multiple people, explaining multiple scribes
  • A hoaxster could plausibly have enough cunning to invent a simple method to generate words (crust-mantle-core style) and then generate a document by basing it bits of meaningful books, thereby reproducing many of the features of the manuscript
  • A hoax would have little use for corrections unless they looked bad on a page, explaining the relative lack of retouching
  • Explains the signs of use on the manuscript
  • Explains how someone (perhaps after incarceration or death of the hoaxters) could find the document and then bind it/add things at a later date.
  • edit to add: The lack of occult or religious symbolism makes sense for such a hoax, as it gives plausible deniability that this isn't some cursed or heretical artifact, allowing for safer use as a prop in a Christian community.

The disadvantages are still legion, of course:
  • This is still a lot of effort, but perhaps one spent to assure that someone can't realise it is gibberish at a glance - important when you're showing the prop to multitudes of people. But there are easier ways to con people.
  • The explanation for why the larger-scope semantic and textual analyses seem to suggest topic clustering is flimsy
  • Gives zero clues for a possible decipherment scheme
  • The parchment appears to have been acquired and prepared similarly, not congruent with being built up piece-by-piece (though not impossible)


Still, I found it a fun hypothesis so decided to share. Would love to hear some thoughts. Thanks for a bunch of threads containing interesting info to pass the time looking into this silly mystery. Smile
[+] 1 user says Thank You to dexdex for this post
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Messages In This Thread
Speculative fraud hypothesis - by dexdex - 18-08-2025, 02:15 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by ReneZ - 19-08-2025, 01:54 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by dexdex - 19-08-2025, 10:17 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by Jim Reeds - 20-08-2025, 12:14 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by asteckley - 19-08-2025, 02:55 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by Koen G - 19-08-2025, 08:01 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by dexdex - 19-08-2025, 09:21 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by proto57 - 19-08-2025, 04:46 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by ReneZ - 19-08-2025, 06:46 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by asteckley - 19-08-2025, 02:11 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by dexdex - 19-08-2025, 02:39 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by ReneZ - 19-08-2025, 10:45 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by dexdex - 19-08-2025, 11:16 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by Koen G - 19-08-2025, 11:36 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by dexdex - 19-08-2025, 11:47 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by R. Sale - 19-08-2025, 08:24 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by ReneZ - 19-08-2025, 11:39 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by ReneZ - 20-08-2025, 12:23 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by asteckley - 20-08-2025, 02:08 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by proto57 - 20-08-2025, 03:12 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by dexdex - 20-08-2025, 09:23 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by Garlonga - 20-08-2025, 08:35 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by ReneZ - 20-08-2025, 11:49 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by dexdex - 20-08-2025, 01:31 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by Mauro - 20-08-2025, 01:43 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by dashstofsk - 21-08-2025, 01:31 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by proto57 - 21-08-2025, 02:35 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by dexdex - 21-08-2025, 06:26 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by Koen G - 21-08-2025, 06:58 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by proto57 - 21-08-2025, 07:21 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by ReneZ - 22-08-2025, 11:30 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by dexdex - 22-08-2025, 12:24 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by Mauro - 22-08-2025, 12:32 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by dexdex - 22-08-2025, 12:58 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by proto57 - 22-08-2025, 05:08 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by dexdex - 22-08-2025, 05:45 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by asteckley - 22-08-2025, 06:29 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by dexdex - 22-08-2025, 06:31 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by asteckley - 23-08-2025, 02:28 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by proto57 - 22-08-2025, 04:41 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by dexdex - 22-08-2025, 12:44 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by tavie - 22-08-2025, 12:55 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by N._N. - 22-08-2025, 08:31 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by ReneZ - 23-08-2025, 03:50 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by magnesium - 23-08-2025, 07:51 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by dexdex - 23-08-2025, 08:47 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by Torsten - 23-08-2025, 08:23 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by dexdex - 23-08-2025, 09:03 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by Torsten - 27-08-2025, 03:33 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by Torsten - 27-08-2025, 08:02 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by dexdex - 23-08-2025, 07:22 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by dexdex - 24-08-2025, 09:16 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by ReneZ - 24-08-2025, 10:59 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by dexdex - 24-08-2025, 12:05 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by nablator - 24-08-2025, 11:14 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by nablator - 24-08-2025, 12:25 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by dexdex - 24-08-2025, 05:38 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by nablator - 24-08-2025, 06:17 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by dexdex - 24-08-2025, 07:30 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by magnesium - 25-08-2025, 01:45 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by Mauro - 25-08-2025, 07:55 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by Eiríkur - 17-09-2025, 03:56 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by dashstofsk - 24-08-2025, 04:05 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by ReneZ - 25-08-2025, 12:08 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by dexdex - 25-08-2025, 08:47 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by Torsten - 13-09-2025, 07:53 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by dashstofsk - 25-08-2025, 08:45 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by asteckley - 25-08-2025, 09:09 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by ReneZ - 26-08-2025, 12:16 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by R. Sale - 07-09-2025, 12:22 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by GrooveDuke - 07-09-2025, 01:24 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by Torsten - 13-09-2025, 05:52 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by DonaldFisk - 17-09-2025, 11:45 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by magnesium - 18-09-2025, 12:27 AM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by Mauro - 18-09-2025, 12:24 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by dexdex - 13-09-2025, 01:38 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by dexdex - 13-09-2025, 03:59 PM
RE: Speculative fraud hypothesis - by Torsten - 13-09-2025, 07:04 PM

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