[VM DAY] State of the Voynich 2024

[Pepper]

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1. Voynichese text, or part of it, contains (semantic) meaning. 99 (hard to be 100% about anything to do with the VMS, except being 100% sure certain theories are wrong)
   
2. The contents have been enciphered with simple substitution or something close to it. 1
   
3. The contents have been enciphered using a more complex cipher. 90 (leaving a small chance there is no cipher at all)
   
4. The contents have been obscured, but not by means of a cipher. 1 (not really sure what this could be)
   
5. The images match the text 99
   
6. The plants are meant to refer to real plants 95
   
7. The majority of the plants is exotic from a European perspective (Asian, African, American...) Not informed enough in botany to have an opinion
   
8. The images have been made ambiguous or otherwise strange to conceal their true meaning 5 (I think they are intentionally not photo-realistic but for cultural/traditional/art reasons, not to deliberately obscure)
   
9. Alchemy is an important part of the MS. Not informed enough in alchemy to have an opinion
   
10. Astronomy and/or astrology are an important part of the MS. 95
    
11. Medicine an important part of the MS. 70
    
12. The MS is the creative product of one mind, i.e. an author. (Taking into account the possibility that one or more scribes helped to fashion the physical manuscript) 50 (I find it just as likely there were two, gut feeling not more than three or four)
    
13. The MS is authored by a known historical figure. Let's define "known" as "has a Wikipedia entry". 1
    
14. One day, we will be able to read the MS. 80
    
15. There will be a breakthrough in Voynich studies in 2024-2025. 1
    
16. The MS is some kind of hoax (i.e. the main motivation for making it was to deceive others). 1
    
17. Have (part of) your views about the MS changed notably over the last few years? Two things. I would have said the probability of a linguistic (as opposed to cipher) solution was virtually nil, until reading Emma May Smith's blog. I still think a cipher is much more likely but if anyone is going to find a linguistic solution I think it will be her (not forgetting Marco Ponzi too). I was initially encouraged by the Ardic's Turkish solution- the first video - but as I saw and read more I am 100% sure that theory is as wrong as all the others.