[Movie] Is the Voynich Manuscript an Elaborate Medieval Hoax?

[Torsten]

However, I disagree with the conclusion. If I remember the video correctly, Sledge doesn't demonstrate that it cannot be a cipher. He instead argues that it is unlikely to be a cipher done by any of the known medieval methods, which is something I agree with.

There is no need to demonstrate that it cannot be an unknown cipher, an unknown language, an unknown text generation method etc. The burden of proof is on the side that makes a claim. For the cipher hypothesis this would require that a concrete cipher is presented. As long as this is not the case it is enough to argue that it is not a known cipher. Sledge does so and you even agree to his statement as you say.

(Please note that Sledge also refers to text properties like the low entropy value. Ciphers normally increase the entropy or doesn't affect the entropy value. This way it is already possible to exclude most ciphers. Sledge also refers to the observation that the Voynich text is changing from page to page and from Currier A to Currier B. Ciphers normally result in a homogenous text. Therefore you need an additional element, like new cipher keys for every page, in order to explain both kinds of changes. Moreover the word length distribution matches almost perfectly a binomial distribution. This points to some kind of stochastic process. There is also a surprising coincidence between the word length distribution for words in the text and for word types, ignoring their frequencies in the text. This means the words were generated during writing the text, since otherwise we should see two distinct distributions. There exists also a deep correlation between frequency, similarity, and spatial vicinity of tokens within the VMS text. This means word tokens depend on each other. ...)

But from this, he infers that it is not a cipher, but something else. However, this something else is also unattested. The VM is novel and unique altogether, so saying "the cipher would be novel" is not a good argument.

Actually Sledge is referring to a concrete method and he argues that this method would reproduce the statistical key properties of the Voynich manuscript. Therefore it is possible to check if this method is able to explain the properties of the Voynich text. See You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.. 

Regarding Bowern's experiment with her students, I have said before in relation to a similar experiment I did with Marco, that it would be better if participants were not aware of the VM.

What is your argument? Most of them probably never heard of the Voynich manuscript before attending Bowerns class. Therefore the students didn't know much about the Voynich text. Even Claire Bowern didn't even notice the similarities to the Voynich text.

Still, the issue remains that if the makers of the VM developed a method of text generation, it would have been something new and unique. Moreover, they didn't invent it as they went along (even though the system evolves). The system stands from the start and immediately produces text with the remarkable properties we all know.

Bowerns students only needed 20 minutes or 100 words to develop such a method. It seems as if not much testing is necessary. Please note that also the development of the glyph set requires some tests.

Regarding the manuscript's value, as we have been discussing this is highly dependent on context. We don't know if an unreadable manuscript would have had value in medieval times, or if that value would have been worth the investment of materials. Maybe a copy of the bible would have fetched way more. We simply don't know. Rudolf lived in his own time and context, much later than the makers of the VM.

A copy of the bible would require far more care and effort than just repeating some meaningless words. Anyway it is also possible that it was about gaining reputation by possessing a mysterious book. Even today the Voynich manuscript is able to attract some attention.