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[Koen G]

A valid remark, Marco, I agree that conclusive is not the ideal word to use here, because there are always different scenarios imaginable. But saying "a strong indication" or something similar is enough for people to say "indication is not evidence so my theory remains valid" - which is the opposite of the message I want to get across :-)

But you phrase it well: evidence that contradicts this timeframe should be exceptionally strong. Saying that "99% is not 100%" does not constitute evidence.

The reason why I get so worked up around this discussion is that the early 15th century timeframe is one of the few really solid things we have. Let's build on that. But instead, the first thing people really love to do is to ignore this evidence.