Hi Emma,
you interpret the set of rules as a way to generate the text. But the rules only describe the observations made for the VMS (see p. 14: ... describe the changes for similar glyph groups ...). Therefore rule II "Copy a glyph group and add one or more glyphs" doesn’t say that you must add random glyphs anywhere all the time if you generate new words. It only says that you can. This is a big difference! I should have expressed more clearly that the rules are only observations and that they can’t be used as instructions to generate the text.
Your suggestion that "the right two characters must be added in the right place, to make a valid word" is correct 97% of the time. For generating a text you have to add rules like that 'ch', 'sh', 'n', 'r', 's', 'l', 'd', 'm', 'q', 'k', 't', 'p', 'f' should not be consecutive (see You are not allowed to view links.
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Login to view. as Timm 2015: p. 5). In fact, in most cases observation II is only used to add a prefix like 'l', 'o', 'ch' or 'q' (see Timm 2015: p. 5). Therefore on first glance it would make sense to reformulate the observations in a more strict form. But this would result in numerous exceptions like 'otkchedy' in <f104.P.17>, 'okdy' in <f103r.P.5>, 'qokdy' in <f105.P2.12>, 'okedyd' in <f59v.P.5>, 'dokedy' <f84v.P.11> etc.
You could try to eliminate these exceptions by interpreting them as errors. Unfortunately they are not errors. For instance beside the word 'qokdy' (4 times) also a word 'qopdy' (1 time) exist (see Timm 2015: p. 79). Furthermore also the words 'qokd' (1 time) and 'okdy' (1 time) makes it hard to interpret the four instances of 'qokdy' as errors. Strict rules simply don’t work for the VMS. Therefore you can't use them. With other words, that for the VMS anything can happen doesn't mean that anything will happen all the time.
The explanation is your point that "if the writer could not simply make any alteration to any word, then it must be that each word has a small number of possible antecedents. Why would the writer limit themselves in such a way?" Indeed the scribe could have done any alternation to any word. But in the VMS we only see the changes he has made. The scribe did not limit himself to some rules he only repeated the same ideas most of the time. But he is not limited to a given set of rules. This can be shown by ideas used only one or two times. One example for such an idea is the change for the bigram "or" into "on" on page <f37v> (see You are not allowed to view links.
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Login to view. as Timm 2016: p. 5). There are numerous other examples. See Timm 2015 p. 31-34 for some of them.
By the way, you can try it yourself and search for the source words for "errors" like 'otkchedy', 'okdy', 'qokdy', 'okedyd', 'dokedy' etc. Most times the source word is obvious in my eyes. For instance the word before 'dokedy' is 'qotedy', in the line above 'otkchedy' a word 'qokchedy' can be found and so forth. For me the examination of the exceptions was the key element to understand what is going on within the VMS.