The VMS has something to do with the court of Borso d'Este

[eggyk]

And personally I agree with Panofsky: the VMS looks provincial, rather than related with major Renaissance centers

It's worth mentioning though that there is often a changing of art style when works are copied, in varying amounts, depending on the individual copying them. Sometimes it's a 1-1 faithful copy, and sometimes the style is quite different even though the fundamental content is mainly the same. So even if the VMS illustrations appear more provincial, that doesn't rule out even a direct copying of a work originally from a major renaissance centre.

However, in order to have convincing evidence that the VMS is in some way based on this work, it would require a similarity in context as well imo. For example, the same group of people, in a similar position, in a similar environment. Otherwise, the claim is that the VMS author was somewhat inspired by some naked people bathing, yet copied neither the exact context nor the artistic style of that book. In my opinion, that is a relatively weak link. 

Similarly, the context of swallowtail merlons is important. Their depiction and use was so widespread that the use of them is not a convincing link in and of itself. The use in the VMS is miniature, in a specific type of diagram, and none of the examples here are actually very close to the VMS in either style or context. 

Also, high interest in astrology and/or herbal medicine were also widespread, so are not a convincing link in and of themselves. The same could have been said for many places and families of all types; that's why we see those things being printed en masse. 

So, it's certainly possible that there is some tangential link here, and it deserves to be investigated as far as possible, but I do not think there is enough here currently to come to the conclusion that there is a likely link with the VMS.