30-08-2020, 05:43 AM
No, it is not like that.
The calibration curve is very steep around the upper limit, and even if one increases the uncertainty of the method by a factor two, every single sample has an upper limit that is below 1450.
The probability that any single sample is after 1450 is negligible.
It is very different on the lower end, due to an inversion of the calibration curve. Increasing the uncertainty means that the parchment could also be 150 years older.
The calibration curve is very steep around the upper limit, and even if one increases the uncertainty of the method by a factor two, every single sample has an upper limit that is below 1450.
The probability that any single sample is after 1450 is negligible.
It is very different on the lower end, due to an inversion of the calibration curve. Increasing the uncertainty means that the parchment could also be 150 years older.
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