(16-08-2019, 09:19 AM)DONJCH wrote: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.It might be an interesting exercise to try to rate various theories quantitatively.
For instance, a Voynich forgery depends on unused parchment surviving 600 years - theoretically possible but unlikely- but what are the odds? A million to 1? How many instances of such have ever been observed?
By comparison, Aliens Didit must be far less likely - no confirmed cases ever - though maybe theoretically possible - odds perhaps a trillion to 1?
600-year old parchment usually has something on it of value, usually of more value than something that is faked. Since the odds of finding more than 100 sheets of 600-year-old blank skin in this quantity is low probability, then a palimpsest created with modern chemicals (which would "scrub" the old content better than they could do it in the Middle Ages) would be the other option.
But people who want to make money would probably try to sell the original rather than the arduous task of trying to remove everything and trying to create a fake (which is an extremely difficult thing to do). Yes, fakes exist, but most of them were done in a time period less distant, when they still knew how to do it "the old way". Very few people these days know how to write with quill on parchment (it's not easy, and painting is even more difficult, preparing the pigments is an art and applying them is harder than applying gall ink), very few know how to read and wrote old text, as on 116v, very few know how plants used to be drawn, there's just too much specialized knowledge bound up in the VMS for this to be done in a short period of time and taking a long time is not a quick route to profit.