16-08-2019, 12:49 PM
Probability is a funny beast ...
One pre-modern ciphertext has to be the longest. We are discussing this MS just because this is the one.
It is essentially impossible to make a realistic estimate of the probability of an event, after the event has already happened.
For other points?
What could be the probability (according to Morten St. George theory) that the Cathars crossed the Atlantic in the 13th century?
What could be the probability that the Spanish settlers of Mexico took old unused parchment with them to write a book there?
What is the probability that Voynich ever saw the Kircher correspondence?
This last question can be used to illustrate another complication.
The estimate of a probability depends on the amount of knowledge about the event.
Toss a coin, and three things can happen:
- it lands on one face
- it lands on the other face
- it lands on the edge
So, if one has no knowledge about the coin, the probability is 1/3 for each.
Of course, if one knows the dimensions of the coin, one estimate better.
Many people can easily imagine that Voynich could have seen the Barschius letter, and was inspired by it.
In reality the probability of that is even smaller than him finding 50+ sheets of unused old parchment.
One pre-modern ciphertext has to be the longest. We are discussing this MS just because this is the one.
It is essentially impossible to make a realistic estimate of the probability of an event, after the event has already happened.
For other points?
What could be the probability (according to Morten St. George theory) that the Cathars crossed the Atlantic in the 13th century?
What could be the probability that the Spanish settlers of Mexico took old unused parchment with them to write a book there?
What is the probability that Voynich ever saw the Kircher correspondence?
This last question can be used to illustrate another complication.
The estimate of a probability depends on the amount of knowledge about the event.
Toss a coin, and three things can happen:
- it lands on one face
- it lands on the other face
- it lands on the edge
So, if one has no knowledge about the coin, the probability is 1/3 for each.
Of course, if one knows the dimensions of the coin, one estimate better.
Many people can easily imagine that Voynich could have seen the Barschius letter, and was inspired by it.
In reality the probability of that is even smaller than him finding 50+ sheets of unused old parchment.