18-05-2021, 07:01 PM
The problem with the C-14 analysis is similar to the situation in astronomy regarding the resolution of binary stars. When the stars a distant and close together, and the instrumentation is insufficient, it is not possible to see if there is one star or two. The same applies to the C-14 dating. With an error factor of plus or minus 35, that's a range of seventy years. This may be fortuitously small in the realm of C-14 analysis, but, at the time given by the analysis, it would be rather long in terms of human lifespan. A decade or two is practically inconsequential for the C-14 test, but it could be quite significant in the historical context.
The VMs parchment dates are close enough, given the moderate error factor, that all the parchment might have been produced at a specific time and the variations in the results occur in the limited accuracy of the test. This is a reasonable assumption, but it is not the only possibility. The alternative possibility is that there was more than one date of parchment production. This would be important because the most recent date is a significant marker.
Given the C-14 information we have, how far apart, in terms of years, do two samples need to be, before they can be resolved as probably being two separate entities?
The VMs parchment dates are close enough, given the moderate error factor, that all the parchment might have been produced at a specific time and the variations in the results occur in the limited accuracy of the test. This is a reasonable assumption, but it is not the only possibility. The alternative possibility is that there was more than one date of parchment production. This would be important because the most recent date is a significant marker.
Given the C-14 information we have, how far apart, in terms of years, do two samples need to be, before they can be resolved as probably being two separate entities?