I am not convinced by the provenance history of the VMS

[anejati]

I doubt he could tell apart a 13th centry black parchment from a 15th century one, with any degree of certainty. After all, he wasn't a human radiocarbon machine.

Yes this is the point, for the forgery theory to work you'd have to say he somehow found unknown parchment which he guessed might be from the 13th century but was actually from the 15th century, then wrote/drew various things on it that just by accident were all consistent in subject matter, composition, and materials with the 15th century. Even though he wanted the forgery to look like the 13th century. It's nonsense.