Why not positional variation?

[oshfdk]

I'm not sure if I understand correctly what this does exactly. It says for "Relative probability of ld{?}" that "g" is first with 0.85.

Intuitively this means that out of all possible characters after ld the one least likely to appear only by accident is g. I cannot look up the numbers now, but this probably means that ldg appears a few times in the ms (say, 3-4 times) and given that both ld and g are relatively rare, this combination is less likely to just appear by chance. In absolute numbers probably lde or lda appear more often, but e and a are frequent characters, so these combinations are more likely to appear by chance.

Edit: the model compares the actual count of a combination like ldg or ldc with the expected count given the total number of ld's and g's or c's in the ms. The reported probability delta is the difference between the actual and the expected divided by twice the mean of actual and expected. This number can be meaningless for when both actual and expected are very small, I'm not sure if Claude considered this.