05-04-2024, 07:25 PM
I made this poll because I had a feeling that among people who are set on a certain date, most of those seem to "require" a later date. But as far as I know, nobody requires an earlier date.
The most commonly cited date range for the parchment, based on the radiocarbon dating, is 1404–1438. Additionally, a narrower range of 1411-1430 can be expected with 68.2% probability. If we assume that parchment was usually used right away, we don't have to place too much time between when the parchment was produced and when any writing was started on it. Taking all that into account, a date of 1412 (start of narrow range +1 year for getting production going) is more likely than a date of 1440 (end of broad range +2 years).
The only reason for people to vote outside of the broad range instead of inside of the narrow range is if they have something like a theory about authorship - which is fine. But it is remarkable that these tend to need later dates rather than earlier.
The most commonly cited date range for the parchment, based on the radiocarbon dating, is 1404–1438. Additionally, a narrower range of 1411-1430 can be expected with 68.2% probability. If we assume that parchment was usually used right away, we don't have to place too much time between when the parchment was produced and when any writing was started on it. Taking all that into account, a date of 1412 (start of narrow range +1 year for getting production going) is more likely than a date of 1440 (end of broad range +2 years).
The only reason for people to vote outside of the broad range instead of inside of the narrow range is if they have something like a theory about authorship - which is fine. But it is remarkable that these tend to need later dates rather than earlier.