Let there be meaning
#15
(22-10-2023, 03:43 PM)MarcoP wrote: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.
daily-random wrote:• 10 NUMBERS FROM 1 TO 500:
133   499   165   144   207   215   491   361   336   400

By the way, your example with numbers is perfect to demonstrate what I'm talking about. Imagine, that we have a number from 1 to 500, let's take the first number in your sequence: 133. What is the probability that another number starting with 13 will appear among the other 9 numbers? There are 11 numbers between 1 and 500 that start with 13 (13, 130-139), and there are 9 independently generated numbers, so the probability is 1 - (1 - 13 / 500) ** 9, or 21%. If another number starting with 13 appeared in this sequence, I'd call this curious, but not very remarkable.

On the other hand, the probability of finding two numbers sharing the same 2-digit prefix in this list is very high, I won't compute it here, but we can try adapting the Birthday paradox formula for this if needed. Edge cases like prefixes above 49, etc make it a bit complicated, but I won't be surprised if it's actually above 50%. And as you can see, 499 and 491 in your list share a two-digit prefix. 

The probabilities of the co-occurrence of three prefixes from 72r3 and 67r2, given we chose labels on 67r2 before starting the experiment, is 0.58%. It's the same as the probability of any chosen number between 1 and 500 to appear among the first 4 numbers of the random sequence.

So, imagine you fix a number between 1 and 500 in your head, say 432 and generate 4 random numbers as above, and on the first try they go:

113 499 432 369

That's the level of statistical significance we are talking about. Not bullet-proof, and as I write in my text, particle physicists would laugh at this, but for the purposes of identifying meaningful patterns in the Voynich manuscript I find this more than enough.
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Messages In This Thread
Let there be meaning - by oshfdk - 21-10-2023, 04:16 PM
RE: Let there be meaning - by nablator - 21-10-2023, 06:13 PM
RE: Let there be meaning - by Koen G - 21-10-2023, 07:08 PM
RE: Let there be meaning - by ReneZ - 22-10-2023, 02:25 AM
RE: Let there be meaning - by oshfdk - 23-10-2023, 05:21 AM
RE: Let there be meaning - by ReneZ - 23-10-2023, 07:26 AM
RE: Let there be meaning - by oshfdk - 23-10-2023, 07:56 AM
RE: Let there be meaning - by oshfdk - 23-10-2023, 06:13 AM
RE: Let there be meaning - by nablator - 23-10-2023, 11:04 AM
RE: Let there be meaning - by oshfdk - 23-10-2023, 11:55 AM
RE: Let there be meaning - by nablator - 23-10-2023, 12:39 PM
RE: Let there be meaning - by oshfdk - 23-10-2023, 01:07 PM
RE: Let there be meaning - by ReneZ - 23-10-2023, 02:00 PM
RE: Let there be meaning - by oshfdk - 23-10-2023, 03:02 PM
RE: Let there be meaning - by MarcoP - 22-10-2023, 03:43 PM
RE: Let there be meaning - by nablator - 22-10-2023, 04:05 PM
RE: Let there be meaning - by oshfdk - 23-10-2023, 06:03 AM
RE: Let there be meaning - by oshfdk - 23-10-2023, 08:47 AM
RE: Let there be meaning - by MarcoP - 23-10-2023, 07:05 AM
RE: Let there be meaning - by oshfdk - 23-10-2023, 07:10 AM
RE: Let there be meaning - by ReneZ - 23-10-2023, 08:35 AM
RE: Let there be meaning - by ReneZ - 23-10-2023, 11:49 PM
RE: Let there be meaning - by oshfdk - 24-10-2023, 02:30 AM
RE: Let there be meaning - by ReneZ - 24-10-2023, 11:52 AM
RE: Let there be meaning - by MarcoP - 24-10-2023, 01:22 PM
RE: Let there be meaning - by nablator - 24-10-2023, 03:05 PM
RE: Let there be meaning - by oshfdk - 24-10-2023, 04:56 PM
RE: Let there be meaning - by MarcoP - 24-10-2023, 03:38 PM
RE: Let there be meaning - by nablator - 24-10-2023, 04:11 PM
RE: Let there be meaning - by nablator - 24-10-2023, 04:53 PM
RE: Let there be meaning - by oshfdk - 24-10-2023, 05:06 PM
RE: Let there be meaning - by nablator - 24-10-2023, 05:38 PM
RE: Let there be meaning - by oshfdk - 24-10-2023, 06:20 PM
RE: Let there be meaning - by nablator - 24-10-2023, 07:18 PM
RE: Let there be meaning - by oshfdk - 25-10-2023, 01:26 AM
RE: Let there be meaning - by nablator - 24-10-2023, 08:32 PM
RE: Let there be meaning - by oshfdk - 25-10-2023, 01:51 AM
RE: Let there be meaning - by oshfdk - 24-10-2023, 05:24 PM
RE: Let there be meaning - by Aga Tentakulus - 25-10-2023, 09:15 AM
RE: Let there be meaning - by oshfdk - 25-10-2023, 06:13 PM
RE: Let there be meaning - by Aga Tentakulus - 25-10-2023, 07:12 PM
RE: Let there be meaning - by oshfdk - 26-10-2023, 02:09 AM
RE: Let there be meaning - by Aga Tentakulus - 26-10-2023, 08:27 AM
RE: Let there be meaning - by oshfdk - 26-10-2023, 10:50 AM
RE: Let there be meaning - by Aga Tentakulus - 01-12-2023, 09:00 AM
RE: Let there be meaning - by MarcoP - 01-12-2023, 10:17 AM
RE: Let there be meaning - by Aga Tentakulus - 01-12-2023, 11:56 AM
RE: Let there be meaning - by Aga Tentakulus - 01-12-2023, 12:17 PM
RE: Let there be meaning - by ReneZ - 03-12-2023, 02:15 AM
RE: Let there be meaning - by Aga Tentakulus - 03-12-2023, 06:05 AM
RE: Let there be meaning - by Aga Tentakulus - 05-12-2023, 03:48 PM
RE: Let there be meaning - by MarcoP - 05-12-2023, 04:22 PM
RE: Let there be meaning - by Rafal - 07-12-2023, 12:05 AM

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