01. 100%: Voynichese text, or part of it, contains (semantic) meaning.

02. 0%: The contents have been enciphered with simple substitution or something close to it.

03. 90%: The contents have been enciphered using a more complex cipher.

04. 10%: The contents have been obscured, but not by means of a cipher.

05. 100%: The images match the text.

06. 100%: The plants are meant to refer to real plants.

07. 0%: The majority of the plants is exotic from a European perspective (Asian, African, American...).

08. 2%: The images have been made ambiguous or otherwise strange to conceal their true meaning.

09. 7%: Alchemy is an important part of the MS.

10. 100%: Astronomy and/or astrology are an important part of the MS.

11. 100%: Medicine an important part of the MS.

12. 95%: The MS is the creative product of one mind, i.e. an author.

13. 1%: The MS is authored by a known historical figure.

14. 90%: One day, we will be able to read the MS.

15. 0%: There will be a breakthrough in Voynich studies in 2024-2025.

16. 0%: The MS is some kind of hoax (i.e. the main motivation for making it was to deceive others). 
         -- But 100% for my 2nd favorite theory, that its a Medieval prop.

17. 1% Have (part of) your views about the MS changed notably over the last few years?  
         -- Not really, but Donald Fisks' bigram encoding really changed the way i viewed possible encipherments.

1.  75%. Voynichese text, or part of it, contains (semantic) meaning.  I wish I were 100%.

2.  0%. The contents have been enciphered with simple substitution or something close to it.  This is perhaps the only thing about the Voynich I feel confident on.  I can't see how simple substitution is compatible with the stats. 

3.  75%. The contents have been enciphered using a more complex cipher.  By complex, I don't think sophisticated.  It was probably very fiddly and not practical enough - and possibly not secure enough (if you knew the language at the time and the likely content) - to be used for diplomatic ciphers. 

4.  0%. The contents have been obscured, but not by means of a cipher.  For the reason in #2.  I do think the contents have also been obscured by means that were likely not part of the cipher (and that this adds to all the statistical noise), but I think a cipher is involved to a large extent.

5.  85%. The images match the text. 

6.  85%.  The plants are meant to refer to real plants. I would be more confident but I have no ability to recognize the plants.

7.  20%. The majority of the plants is exotic from a European perspective (Asian, African, American...).  As above, but my starting point without any competence in this matter would be to presume it is in keeping with contemporary herbals, unless proved otherwise.

8.  30%. The images have been made ambiguous or otherwise strange to conceal their true meaning.  As above, but I don't see a reason to think they have been. 

9.  20%. Alchemy is an important part of the MS.  I think it would have been clearer in the imagery were this the case, but I don't feel confident giving opinions on imagery.

10.  85%.  Astronomy and/or astrology are an important part of the MS.  In keeping with my answer to #5.

11.  85%. Medicine an important part of the MS.  This would make sense based on how astrology was used at the time.

12.  40%. The MS is the creative product of one mind, i.e. an author. (Taking into account the possibility that one or more scribes helped to fashion the physical manuscript).  I feel it could have been a group of students, even if one was more of a dominant personality in the exercise.

13.  25%. The MS is authored by a known historical figure. Let's define "known" as "has a Wikipedia entry".  I am open to it but doubtful...

14.  85%. One day, we will be able to read the MS.  I am still hopeful. 

15.  10%. There will be a breakthrough in Voynich studies in 2024-2025.  Assuming you mean breakthrough in light of the above, I think unlikely.  But I think developments/progress can be expected.  I'd see your imagery work certainly as a development.

16.  25%. The MS is some kind of hoax (i.e. the main motivation for making it was to deceive others).  In keeping with answer to #1.  But I would see it as medieval hoax, perhaps to make the book's owner look more impressive.  But it's a lower percentage because I think the number of scribes, and the line patterns and other rules, are serious challenges to this idea.

17.  100%. Have (part of) your views about the MS changed notably over the last few years?   Biggest would be that I've gone from thinking it wasn't a cypher to thinking it is a "cypher plus" system.

1. 100
   
2. 50
   
3. 25
   
4. 70
   
5. 0 real, 50 compositions of real plants (some plants, some are imaginary)
   
6. 0
   
7. 80
   
8. 0
   
9. 30
   
10. 60
    
11. 80
    
12. 20
    
13. 50
    
14. 0
    
15. 10
    
16. 0
    

1.  50
2.  0
3.  10
4.  50  (limited by the answer to 1)
5.  25
6.  75
7.  0
8.  0
9.  10
10. 90
11. 90
12. 75
13. 1
14. 50  (limited by the answer to 1)
15. 10
16. 50
17. 25

1. 100%
2. 40%
3. 20%
4. 0%
5. 80%
6. 60%
7. 0%
8. 0%
9. 10%
10. 80%
11. 100%
12. 30%
13. 20%
14. 100%
15. 70%
16. 0%
17. 100%

1. Voynichese text, or part of it, contains (semantic) meaning. 99 (hard to be 100% about anything to do with the VMS, except being 100% sure certain theories are wrong)
   
2. The contents have been enciphered with simple substitution or something close to it. 1
   
3. The contents have been enciphered using a more complex cipher. 90 (leaving a small chance there is no cipher at all)
   
4. The contents have been obscured, but not by means of a cipher. 1 (not really sure what this could be)
   
5. The images match the text 99
   
6. The plants are meant to refer to real plants 95
   
7. The majority of the plants is exotic from a European perspective (Asian, African, American...) Not informed enough in botany to have an opinion
   
8. The images have been made ambiguous or otherwise strange to conceal their true meaning 5 (I think they are intentionally not photo-realistic but for cultural/traditional/art reasons, not to deliberately obscure)
   
9. Alchemy is an important part of the MS. Not informed enough in alchemy to have an opinion
   
10. Astronomy and/or astrology are an important part of the MS. 95
    
11. Medicine an important part of the MS. 70
    
12. The MS is the creative product of one mind, i.e. an author. (Taking into account the possibility that one or more scribes helped to fashion the physical manuscript) 50 (I find it just as likely there were two, gut feeling not more than three or four)
    
13. The MS is authored by a known historical figure. Let's define "known" as "has a Wikipedia entry". 1
    
14. One day, we will be able to read the MS. 80
    
15. There will be a breakthrough in Voynich studies in 2024-2025. 1
    
16. The MS is some kind of hoax (i.e. the main motivation for making it was to deceive others). 1
    
17. Have (part of) your views about the MS changed notably over the last few years? Two things. I would have said the probability of a linguistic (as opposed to cipher) solution was virtually nil, until reading Emma May Smith's blog. I still think a cipher is much more likely but if anyone is going to find a linguistic solution I think it will be her (not forgetting Marco Ponzi too). I was initially encouraged by the Ardic's Turkish solution- the first video - but as I saw and read more I am 100% sure that theory is as wrong as all the others.

 

1. 95
   
2. 10
   
3. 50
   
4. 50
   
5. 70
   
6. 50
   
7. 5
   
8. 40
   
9. 90
   
10. 90
    
11. 10
    
12. 5
    
13. 5
    
14. 60
    
15. 10
    
16. 5
    
17. 100