05-07-2025, 09:20 PM
(05-07-2025, 07:07 PM)Jorge_Stolfi Wrote: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.Said more simply: if one does not believe a priori that the VMS is a hoax, knowing A and B will not convince them.
It might be possible to make Prob(A|not TTT) much lower with a more specific A, but "not TTT" includes an infinite number of theories, known and unknown. There doesn't seem to be a way to estimate the sum of all Prob(t)*Prob(A|t) without modeling all possible theories (t).
