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+--- Thread: Storehouses of parchment (/thread-3330.html)
RE: Storehouses of parchment - R. Sale - 29-08-2020
ReneZ,
Thanks, I do believe that situation rests on the margin of error inherent in the Carbon-14 test itself. The four VMs parchment samples all may well come from a similar place and a very similar time. They are close enough 'statistically' to be averaged in a way "fully consistent within the accuracy of the method" as you say. But the 'single-source' statistical option is not the only possible analytical method because it is not the only real possibility on the ground. The secondary option using an alternate two-source method and given the date range of the most recent sample, if it was parchment that came from a secondary source, could shift the date of final parchment production date closer to or beyond 1450. So, it's just as valid in a statistical sense. And as to probability, that's going to depend on situational dynamics that require further clarification.
Single-source statistics have provided an average date. It's a good piece of information, groundbreaking. However, it does not tell how many batches of parchment there are in the four samples, in part because the margin of error in the C-14 test is too wide. The test can not detect a difference in a span of 30 years, but this could be much of a human life span. Thirty years is the span from 1420 to 1450. The data is simply not sufficiently specific or accurate enough to be able to validate one particular interpretation or another.
Or, perhaps the VMs could be produced in less than four years. FROM: 1434 - Sainte Hostie - my starting date TO: 1438 - the last C-14 single source, average date. Makes for an interesting potential scientific and cultural overlap, IMHO. Four years should be sufficient, but maybe it could be later.
RE: Storehouses of parchment - ReneZ - 30-08-2020
RE: Storehouses of parchment - bi3mw - 30-08-2020
RE: Storehouses of parchment - R. Sale - 31-08-2020
RE: Storehouses of parchment - MarcoP - 31-08-2020
RE: Storehouses of parchment - ReneZ - 31-08-2020
RE: Storehouses of parchment - bi3mw - 31-08-2020
RE: Storehouses of parchment - ReneZ - 31-08-2020
RE: Storehouses of parchment - Koen G - 31-08-2020
RE: Storehouses of parchment - -JKP- - 31-08-2020