(04-07-2026, 08:49 AM)Aga Tentakulus Wrote: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.So how does that work?
I get up in the morning and have the idea of having a barbecue.
That is a different kind of “idea” than Koen was referring to.
Yours is an idea about what
doing something. He is referring to an idea that
explains something observed. Very different.
Yeah, and I think in all kinds of theories, there are differences in how readily an individual will adjust their theory in the light of conflicting evidence. Both extremes are possible in the three kinds of theories we discussed.
1. Personal "idea", explanation for an observation:
"My theory is that the neighbor's dog is the one eating our flowers". -> video evidence of the mailman snacking on some tulips ->
High adaptability: "Oh my god, I am so sorry I blamed the dog, also the mailman is insane".
Low adaptability: "Well, the mailman must have gotten hungry after a long shift. But I'm sure it was the dog the other times!"
2. Voynich-style theories
High adaptability: "The radiocarbon dating rules out the Roger Bacon authorship theory".
Low adaptability: most Voynich theories, and that's the problem. Many people in Voynich circles have become one with their own solution.
3. Scientific theories should be adaptable, and they are in the long run. But of course, the strength of evidence is not always clear immediately, and individual scientists may not always be ready to adapt their views to new insights.
4. Conspiracy theories, religiously inspired theories... Flat earth, moonlanding is fake, the earth is 6000 years old... There is no hope here. All evidence to the contrary will be rejected or misinterpreted, goalposts moved, everything will be done to keep the theory standing.
The big problem with Voynich theories is that the solver feels like they are like (3), while in fact they are like (4).
[Note: at some point, my phone's autocorrect feature apparently has decided that "Voynich" should always be changed into "Voybich", perhaps because this is a typo I often make with my large fingers. Whenever I write "Voybich", this is not on purpose. I have deleted the suggestion from my keyboard's dictionary and hope it is gone for good.]
(04-07-2026, 01:51 PM)Koen G Wrote: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.Low adaptability: "Well, the mailman must have gotten hungry after a long shift. But I'm sure it was the dog the other times!"
Unfortunately, in quite a few cases we have seen theorists just insist it was footage of a dog!
(04-07-2026, 02:10 PM)rikforto Wrote: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view. (04-07-2026, 01:51 PM)Koen G Wrote: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.Low adaptability: "Well, the mailman must have gotten hungry after a long shift. But I'm sure it was the dog the other times!"
Unfortunately, in quite a few cases we have seen theorists just insist it was footage of a dog!
The dog could have been wearing a costume to frame the mailman.
(03-07-2026, 08:01 PM)eggyk Wrote: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.I would argue the vast majority of breakthroughs and progress do not come from scientists who are convinced of their hunch, but rather scientists that ... [carry out tests] that are formulated as ways of proving/disproving existing theories...
Yes, yes,
ideally a scientist should not believe or publish his theory until he obtains proof that can convince the others too.
Ideally he should do experiments without regard to the chance that they may support or discredit his theory.
Ideally, he should continue experimenting even after he gets positive or negative evidence, if the evidence is not proof that will convince others.
But
that is not how humans function. And that is not how many advances actually happen.
Newton, Pasteur, Einstein and many, many others did not wait for irrefutable proof of their theories before announcing and defending them. They would not have done so if they were not convinced that their theories were true. Proof that would convince others only came many years or decades after that. They would not have kept defending their theories and looking for such proof if they were not convinced that all the negative evidence and arguments that were thrown at them must have be flawed.
Columbus would not have sailed off if he was not convinced that Japan was just over there. Wiles would not have spent six years working on the proof of Fermat's Last "Theorem" if he was not convinced beforehand that it was true. We probably would not have blue LEDs today if Shuiji Nakamura did not work on his idea at home for several years, after being told by his employer that it was a waste of time and money.
Quote:You must not be up to date with dark matter and cosmology.
Oh, I am very well acquainted too with matters cosmological. I can tell right away when Sabine changes her makeup or her blouse.
All the best, --stolfi
(04-07-2026, 01:51 PM)Koen G Wrote: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.[..]
[Note: at some point, my phone's autocorrect feature apparently has decided that "Voynich" should always be changed into "Voybich", perhaps because this is a typo I often make with my large fingers. Whenever I write "Voybich", this is not on purpose. I have deleted the suggestion from my keyboard's dictionary and hope it is gone for good.]
Looks like AI is beginning to strike back now, since you banned it‘s pearls into a bucket here…
„Voybitch“ is quite an expression for some of the meaner problems of Voynichese, so your phone is developing Artificial Humour now.
I hope your device is not called „skynet“ or so.
(04-07-2026, 08:57 PM)Stefan Wirtz_2 Wrote: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.„Voybitch“ is quite an expression for some of the meaner problems of Voynichese, so your phone is developing Artificial Humour now.
I admit to being tempted to use this endearingly instead of my occasional "Voynicheers"
I must admit that you Voybitches greatly improved my mailman analogy!